By David Mansheim
Do you know someone who seems perfectly reasonable and nice but has adopted irrational
beliefs that you believe are ludicrous or offensive? It will be a rare Christmas table where
someone doesn’t wonder how on earth his relative, neighbor, or friend can believe “those
things.” Will certain topics be ruled “off the table” to keep the peace at your house?
Dan Ariely in his new book, Misbelief, says misinformation has always been used for strategic
advantage, to promote a political agenda, or to gain financially. Social science tells us that we
start with an emotional response and then come up with reasons to justify it in a process called
conformation bias. Religious, political, or cultural beliefs become part of our core identity and
we resent having them challenged.
Studies show some personalities are more susceptible to misbelief, low institutional trust,
and political polarization. Unpredictable stressors like pandemics, wars, or losses for your
political team will make people feel events are out of control and in desperate need of an
explanation. Stress or scarcity reduces our reasoning capacity and causes us to grasp quick-
and-easy solutions.
Psychologists have proven people are more resilient to stress if they were raised in
emotional safety with secure attachments – believing that if something bad happens somebody
will catch us. Secure people focus more on the upside and less on the downside. When
insecure people compare themselves to others, they may feel they are at a disadvantage, that
their lot in life is harder than it is for “the elites”, resentful, and that someone must be to
blame.
Fear of events rather than trust will drive people to seek villains, to malicious conspiracies, to
vitriol, and to hate. We all love to get on our high horse and hate villains whether Donald
Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Occams Razor is the proposition that the simplest explanation is usually the best one absent
contradictory evidence. Hanlons Razor states one should never attribute malice to that which
is adequately explained by mistake or human fallibility. Conspiracy theories thrive because
humans are not wired to be satisfied with the randomness or bad luck of events but instead
look for reasons, and then attribute evil intent.
A conspiracy believer feels they have the comfort of unique knowledge, whereas the rest of
us are mere sheeple. They often become moral crusaders fighting outrageous evils. The sad
fact is most of us find facts to be dull but alternate-reality stories exciting.
Besides all the psychological processes at work, misbelief is furthered by lack of critical
thinking skills. We all know people who throw up their hands in frustration and declare they
don’t know what to think. They may refuse to inform themselves or even to vote. Is it possible
Covid not only damaged some people’s sense of smell but also destroyed their BS detector?
As an old debate coach, I plan to write a follow-up column addressing logical traps and how to restore our BS detectors.